1
—
Defending champion. Held the core. Coaching continuity. Roster ready to defend.
2
↑ 1
A’ja health is the year’s most-watched variable; if she plays 30 games, this is the title pick.
3
—
Collier’s ceiling, Reeve’s system. Same recipe that nearly took it last year.
4
↑ 2
Third-year jump expected. Chemistry is the question, talent isn’t.
5
↑ 3
Free-agent winners. The fit-rather-than-stars approach finally has the right pieces.
6
↓ 2
Lost more than they replaced. Rebuild, but a soft one — should still make the play-in.
7
—
Veteran-led, durable. Ceiling is the second round; floor is the play-in.
8
↑ 1
Best young core in the East. One starter away from a real run.
9
—
Health-dependent. Points-per-game ceiling is real if everyone stays on the floor.
10
↓ 3
Lost too much in the off-season. Rebuilding without the lottery shine.
11
—
Year-two of the Reese-led era. Chemistry trending right, ceiling still capped.
12
↑ 1
New regime, new system. Won’t make the playoffs; will be the most-improved by EOY.
13
Golden State Valkyries
West
—
Year two of the expansion build. Punching slightly above weight thanks to coaching.
14
expansion
Year one. Better-than-Vegas-1.0 roster but still a Year One team. Crowd will be the story.
15
expansion
Year one. Most-watched expansion roster build in league history; still a year away.
Methodology
A weighted blend — not a pure projection model, not a pure opinion poll, but the honest combination editors use when they argue out a Top 15.
- Returning production (40%) — on-court value retained from last season’s roster, weighted by minutes played in playoff games.
- Off-season delta (30%) — net of free-agent signings, trades, and draft picks. Expansion drafts count as net-zero baseline.
- Coaching continuity (15%) — same staff vs. new staff. Continuity tends to outperform turnover in season one of a rebuild.
- Health prior (10%) — expected availability of the team’s top three players, based on three-year injury history.
- Editor adjustment (5%) — the part we own. Used sparingly. Always defensible in writing.
power_index = .40·returning + .30·delta + .15·coaching + .10·health + .05·editor